Israel. the US is just mouthpiece for Israel
Europe, China, and Russia should negotiate with Iran. The problem with regional countries is that they have no power to implement any agreement if the US doesn’t approve.
That fundamentally misunderstands the incentives of involved parties
Russia and China, broadly, benefit from the US war on Iran. They are incentivized to allow the war to continue for the time being
Russia benefits because it aligns US interests (oil and gas) with Russia, which is a major producer of oil and gas products. These interests take the form of helping Russia in their war against Ukraine
China benefits because the war weakens their global roval, the US
Europe is unequivocally against the war. They have nothing to gain, and public opinion is anti-war
Europe is also against anything that helps Russia in their war against Ukraine, which takes priority over ending the US war against Iran
To put the three together in negotiations would be a waste of time and resources. Their incentives are incompatible
Russia and China could be benefiting from the war as long as it is a stalemate but suppose the Iranian regime collapses and is replaced by one which is pro-US. Russia would now have a pro-US country next door, and the US could control the oil exported to China.
The war is helping Russia’s war against Ukraine because Trump is willing to help Putin in order to get Russian diesel oil. Remember the problem with Starlink. Also. the war in Iran is increasing oil prices in Europe.
Why though? US can be asked to leave, right?
From their countries, but the US Navy can continue its blockade and bomb Iran.
Yes, I suppose that’s true. This would have to be dressed as a big win for Trump.
That’s why I said Europe, China, and Russia should get together and negotiate with Iran. They have the power to implement any deal even if the US rejects it.
Can you think of any deal those 3 could make that would be beneficial to all 3 parties over the current status quo? You can ignore political feasibility
I certainly cannot, and in most situations political feasibility is the largest impediment
I think a big obstacle is Trumping wanting Iran to give its enriched uranium to the US for storage. Europe, China, and Russia would be open to it being stored in their countries or Pakistan. Iran trusts these 3 countries more. Also, China and Russia are allies of Iran and can pressure it into an agreement.
None of them would be interested in being so “hands-on” in Persian gulf. Maybe the new Pakistan Saudi Turkey alliance could step in but its hard to make a case for them to work against US actions.
Are Russia and China willing to risk the Iranian regime collapsing and being replaced by a pro-US government? Does Europe want Trump to help Putin because he wants Russian diesel oil?
They can do that. But it would also be difficult for the Navy to provide logistical support for its operations if the entire region, plus Europe, decided to shut down the U.S. bases. It would be possible, of course, but it would involve significantly more effort and cost… After all, the ability to supply troops around the globe is precisely the reason for the U.S. bases all over the world, if I understand correctly.
You make a good point, but all these countries would have to agree. It would be simpler for Europe, China, and Russia to get together and negotiate with Iran. They have the power to implement any agreement even if the US rejects it.
He’s not wrong
