“People, understandably, are having trouble believing in the polls,” Nate Silver acknowledged to New York Times columnist Ezra Klein.
The post Nate Silver Suggests ‘Momentous’ Midterms Might Mark ‘the End of the Trump Era’ first appeared on Mediaite.
dont forget election night 2016 when every one thought it was over then
Indeed. But many pollsters (like Nate) acknowledged this huge miscalculation in hindsight, and have tried to dissect that and predict with that in mind.
In fact, the original source addresses this and discusses the topic extensively. It’s most of the interview:
I think Democrats have the emotional feeling that when there’s a polling error, it is against them. Because Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden and just in general — polls actually have repeatedly underestimated Donald Trump. But is that true? And is it particularly true in midterms? Have polling errors been consistently against Democrats?
Probably not the end, but likely a shifting into a new phase. One where he’ll simply ignore outcomes, rules, boundaries, orders. You know - like he always does. Except worse. Always, always, somehow…worse.
There’s gonna be violence. And death. You’re not getting him out of there except in a body bag.
Also Trump and Iran are now in an escalation trap. The Iran war is very likely to continue to escalate, and the odds increase if(when) Trump loses the mid terms.
They will use the war to try to stop the Democrats from investigating them by characterizing investigations as an attack on the troops, treason, etc…
Expanding their failed air campaign against Iran has no bearing on the committee investigations that Democratic majorities can use if the midterms go as expected. Quite the opposite - it will provide more exposure since most of what they’re doing is not just immoral and ineffective, but totally illegal. Even after Pearl Harbor, the president sought congressional approval for the war against Japan. Trump the Fool fell prey to Netanyahu’s scheme to do the dirty work for him, assuming it would be as effortless as the Venezuelan Job.
I agree it will continue, but what does escalation look like? Boots on the ground will be a bloodbath, even the vulgar talking yam understands that and it’s why he hasn’t done it yet. The first footage of slaughtered Marines and smouldering Abrams tanks would be an instant impeachment and such a brutal display of wasted american casualties might well be enough to get the 2/3 majority required to impeach a lame duck presidency. There are probably more Republicans too than we realize who would welcome a way to get rid of a Trump. Nobody expects him to leave peacefully in 2028, other than waiting for a sufficiently large stroke. He is an obese octogenarian rageaholic troll who is blocking their own futures as much as he is the decent portion of the world’s path forward.
Good content, Nate Silver knows what he’s talking about, but why didn’t you link the original source?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/27/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-nate-silver.html
It’s not paywalled. And mediaite is a questionable source, to the extent that even Wikipedia advises against citing them:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Reliable_sources/Perennial_sources
It’s generally best practice, most ethical, and good information hygiene, to link the original source instead of a downstream “repost,” or at least to link it in the post text.
