cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/61046669

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Official data released in the last week show the ratio of China’s dependent elderly people compared to the working age population rose to 23% last year, overtaking the figure for children, which stood at 22%.

The numbers are closely watched for signs of how China’s shrinking workforce will impact both the world’s second largest economy and global growth as a whole.

The latest figures mark a significant milestone as China grapples with an ageing population that could have implications for families, pensions and healthcare spending, analysts say.

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The demographic shift is “symbolic” and could suggest more public spending will move from families and schools to pensions and healthcare, said Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten from The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

It may also pose a challenge to the country’s ambitions, as it could limit its economic growth as well as people’s spending power, said National University of Singapore sociology lecturer Mu Zheng.

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China’s ageing population has been driven by a mix of factors, including rapid urbanisation and the effects of the controversial one-child policy, which was in place from 1980 to the end of 2015.

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Despite easing restrictions on the size of families, Beijing has struggled to persuade couples to have more children, with birth rates hitting historic lows.

Other contributing factors include changing gender roles, rising living costs and higher education levels that have put pressure on fertility rates, Mu said.

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As a result, China’s birth rate hits record low as population continues to shrink.

Government data on Monday showed that the country’s birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 people – a record low since the Communist Party took power in 1949 – while its death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest since 1968.

Its population fell 3.39 million to reach 1.4 billion by the end of 2025, marking a quicker decline than the previous year …

China has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, at around one birth per woman, below the replacement rate of 2.1. Other economies in the region, such as South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, have similarly low fertility rates …

China is also one of the most expensive countries in which to raise a child, according to a 2024 report by the YuWa Population Research Institute in Beijing …